but bet on beliefs. This paper has taken an engineering-style approach to this concept. After reviewing democratic failures, speculative market successes, and the measurement of welfare, we considered thirty-three design issues with this concept, and finally sketched a more specific proposal to deal with some of these issues. If, after this examination, the concept passes the low engineering threshold of “promising,” then the next appropriate engineering-style step would be to test simple prototypes in simple test environments. Mathematical and simulation models could be constructed, and laboratory experimentscouldcompareasimpleversionsofboththisconceptandamorefamiliardemocracy in simple informationenvironments. Laboratorysuccesses mightthen prompt largertrials, such as for important decisions in a corporation or other large organization. Eventually, we might consider trying agency-level decision making, such as with monetary policy, and later still, we might even be ready to consider changing a national form of government. Perhaps, at such a moment, we might even consider what a betting market has to say about how making this change would impact future GDP and other welfare measures. References Abramowicz, M. (2004). Information markets, administrative decisionmaking, and predictive cost-benefit analysis. University of Chicago Law Review, 71(3). Ascher, W. (1999). Why Governments Waste Natural Resources: Policy Failures in Developing Countries. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. Aumann, R. (1976). Agreeing to disagree. The Annals of Statistics, 4(6), 1236–1239. Barker, A., & Peters, B. G. (1993). The Politics of Expert Advice. University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh. Barsky, R. B., & De Long, J. B. (1993). Why does the stock market fluctuate?. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(2), 291–311. Bell, T. (1997). Idea futures: Making the marketplace of ideas work. Tech. rep., Chapman University School of Law. Berg, J., & Rietz, T. (2002). Accuracy and forecast standard error of prediction markets. Tech. rep., University of Iowa, College of Business Administration. Berg, J. E., & Rietz, T. A. (2003). Prediction markets as decision support systems. Information Systems Frontiers, 5(1), 79–93. Besley, T., & Coate, S. (1998). Sources of inefficiency in a representative democracy: A dynamic analysis. American Economic Review, 88(1), 139–56. Boskin, M. J. (2000). Economic measurement: Progress and challenges. American Economic Review, 90(2), 247–252. 27